> Markdown version of [/tools/convexly](https://launchpoly.com/tools/convexly) — served by LaunchPoly, the directory of Polymarket, Kalshi and other prediction market tools. # Convexly Skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets: realized edge with intervals, not profit screenshots. Works with[Polymarket](/tools?market=polymarket) [Analytics](/category/analytics), [Research](/category/research) · free · Web [Visit website](https://www.convexly.app/tools/polymarket-wallet-analyzer) Vote7 votes. Upvote Convexly Share 1 / 5 ## About Convexly Convexly is a free analyzer that takes any Polymarket wallet address and reports whether its track record reflects skill or luck. Paste a wallet and it pulls public resolved positions, aggregates fills by market and side using volume-weighted average price, and computes a Brier score measured against a naive base-rate baseline. It attaches a 95% confidence interval to the wallet's realized edge, applies a false-discovery-rate correction across the cohort, and flags cases where the interval includes zero or the sample is under roughly 30 positions, meaning the record can't be separated from chance. It also reports concentration share, showing whether results come from many calibrated bets or one large conviction trade, and rolls calibration, sizing, and concentration into an Edge Score benchmarked as a percentile against a frozen reference cohort of 8,656 wallets. It's built for anyone trying to evaluate a Polymarket trader beyond a profit screenshot or a leaderboard rank, whether that's someone deciding if a "whale" wallet's returns are replicable, or a trader auditing their own calibration. No signup or wallet signature is required to run the first analysis, and only public on-chain data is used. The methodology is published and frozen, including negative results, and the tool is explicit that its output is a diagnostic read, not investment advice, especially for wallets with thin sample sizes. Convexly is a free analytics tool built for Polymarket traders — Skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets: realized edge with intervals, not profit screenshots. It is listed in the LaunchPoly directory, where it was added on July 6, 2026 and currently has 7 community votes this round. Convexly is an independent skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets. Paste any wallet and the free analyzer returns its realized-edge read with a 95% confidence interval and a false-discovery-rate correction across the cohort, so you can tell skill from variance instead of reading a profit screenshot. The methodology is frozen and published, including negative results. No signup required. ## Questions about Convexly ### What is Convexly? Convexly is a free analytics tool for Polymarket. Skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets: realized edge with intervals, not profit screenshots. ### Is Convexly free to use? Yes — Convexly is free to use. ### What category does Convexly belong to? Convexly is listed under Analytics, Research on LaunchPoly's prediction market tools directory. ### How is Convexly ranked on LaunchPoly? Convexly is ranked by community votes from real traders. Votes reset every other Sunday, and it currently has 7 votes this round. ## At a glance Category Analytics, Research Pricing free Works with Polymarket Platforms Web Votes this round 7 Listed July 6, 2026 Updated October 29, 2026 ### Links [X](https://x.com/ConvexlyApp) Report Support this tool ## Boost Convexly Give this listing a sponsored homepage card. Anyone can buy a Boost, including guests. - **3 days**$15 - **7 days**$29 - **14 days**$49 - Review available dates before paying - Clearly labelled as sponsored - Community votes and ranking stay unchanged Boost this listing One-time card payment. You are buying promotion, not ownership of the listing. [Choose another listing →](/boosts) Support this tool ## Boost Convexly Give this listing a sponsored homepage card. Anyone can buy a Boost, including guests. - **3 days**$15 - **7 days**$29 - **14 days**$49 - Review available dates before paying - Clearly labelled as sponsored - Community votes and ranking stay unchanged Boost this listing One-time card payment. You are buying promotion, not ownership of the listing. [Choose another listing →](/boosts) ## More like this [All Analytics](/category/analytics) [ ### Gondor DeFi layer prediction market 53 votes this round ](/tools/gondor)[ ### Bullpen Trade token, perps and predictions 51 votes this round ](/tools/bullpen)[ ### Matchr The Aggregation Layer 43 votes this round ](/tools/matchr) ## Related guides [All guides](/blog) [ ### Best Polymarket Analytics Tools in 2026 (Tested & Ranked) Comprehensive comparison of the top Polymarket analytics tools in 2026. Whale tracking, AI analysis, real-time alerts, and cross-platform data — all compared side by side. ](/blog/best-polymarket-analytics-tools)[ ### Polymarket Whale Tracking: How to Follow Big Traders (2026) Every Polymarket trade is on-chain, so you can watch the biggest wallets. 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