> Markdown version of [/tools/convexly](https://launchpoly.com/tools/convexly) — served by LaunchPoly, the #1 Polymarket tools directory. [Back to Tools](/tools) ![Convexly](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fulueyulgndpwxivsvcbk.supabase.co%2Fstorage%2Fv1%2Fobject%2Fpublic%2Ftool-images%2Ftools%2Fconvexly%2Flogos%2Frebuilt.png&w=2048&q=75&dpl=dpl_CUj6TDZDZFqzqr1idfm4yEi2e55Q) # Convexly Skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets: realized edge with intervals, not profit screenshots. [ Analytics ](/category/analytics)[ Research ](/category/research) web Free ![Convexly screenshot 1](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fulueyulgndpwxivsvcbk.supabase.co%2Fstorage%2Fv1%2Fobject%2Fpublic%2Ftool-images%2Ftools%2Fconvexly%2Fscreenshots%2Frebuilt-1.png&w=2048&q=75&dpl=dpl_CUj6TDZDZFqzqr1idfm4yEi2e55Q) Click to expand [Visit Website](https://www.convexly.app/tools/polymarket-wallet-analyzer) Upvote(15) Share ### Promote this tool Pay with card or SOL · instant activation $15 Boost 5 days featured on the homepage + Trending badge — climbs the live Trending board Boost Convexly ◎or pay with SOL BEST IMPACT $69 Launch Package 10 days featured + top of Trending + SEO article + social post Get Launch Package ◎or pay with SOL [More options — homepage banner ad, enhanced profile](/pricing#addons) Payments promote **Convexly** on LaunchPoly. One-time · Card or crypto · Instant activation. ## About Convexly Convexly is a free analyzer that takes any Polymarket wallet address and reports whether its track record reflects skill or luck. Paste a wallet and it pulls public resolved positions, aggregates fills by market and side using volume-weighted average price, and computes a Brier score measured against a naive base-rate baseline. It attaches a 95% confidence interval to the wallet's realized edge, applies a false-discovery-rate correction across the cohort, and flags cases where the interval includes zero or the sample is under roughly 30 positions, meaning the record can't be separated from chance. It also reports concentration share, showing whether results come from many calibrated bets or one large conviction trade, and rolls calibration, sizing, and concentration into an Edge Score benchmarked as a percentile against a frozen reference cohort of 8,656 wallets. It's built for anyone trying to evaluate a Polymarket trader beyond a profit screenshot or a leaderboard rank, whether that's someone deciding if a "whale" wallet's returns are replicable, or a trader auditing their own calibration. No signup or wallet signature is required to run the first analysis, and only public on-chain data is used. The methodology is published and frozen, including negative results, and the tool is explicit that its output is a diagnostic read, not investment advice, especially for wallets with thin sample sizes. Convexly is a free analytics tool built for Polymarket traders — Skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets: realized edge with intervals, not profit screenshots. It is listed in the LaunchPoly directory, where it was added on July 6, 2026 and currently has 15 community votes this week. Convexly is an independent skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets. Paste any wallet and the free analyzer returns its realized-edge read with a 95% confidence interval and a false-discovery-rate correction across the cohort, so you can tell skill from variance instead of reading a profit screenshot. The methodology is frozen and published, including negative results. No signup required. ## Convexly at a glance Category Analytics, Research Pricing free Platforms web Votes this week 15 Listed July 6, 2026 Last updated September 10, 2026 ## Frequently asked questions about Convexly ### What is Convexly? Convexly is a free analytics tool for Polymarket. Skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets: realized edge with intervals, not profit screenshots. ### Is Convexly free to use? Yes — Convexly is free to use. ### What category does Convexly belong to? Convexly is listed under Analytics, Research on LaunchPoly's Polymarket tools directory. ### How is Convexly ranked on LaunchPoly? Convexly is ranked by community votes from real Polymarket traders. Votes reset every Sunday, and it currently has 15 votes this week. ## Links & Resources [X](https://ConvexlyApp)[Get featured free](/tools/convexly/badge) Report ## More like this [Browse all Analytics](/category/analytics) [ ![Nevua Markets](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fulueyulgndpwxivsvcbk.supabase.co%2Fstorage%2Fv1%2Fobject%2Fpublic%2Ftool-images%2Ftools%2Fnevua-markets%2Flogos%2Frebuilt.png&w=2048&q=75&dpl=dpl_CUj6TDZDZFqzqr1idfm4yEi2e55Q) ### Nevua Markets Real-time alerts and market intelligence for traders 37 votes ](/tools/nevua-markets)[ ![Polyfollow](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fulueyulgndpwxivsvcbk.supabase.co%2Fstorage%2Fv1%2Fobject%2Fpublic%2Ftool-images%2Ftools%2Fpolyfollow%2Flogos%2Frebuilt.png&w=2048&q=75&dpl=dpl_CUj6TDZDZFqzqr1idfm4yEi2e55Q) ### Polyfollow Pro-level Polymarket copy trading with zero latency 37 votes ](/tools/polyfollow)[ M ### MIRA AI-enhanced prediction market analysis and insights 31 votes ](/tools/mira) ## Related guides [All guides](/blog) [ ### Best Polymarket Analytics Tools in 2026 (Tested & Ranked) Comprehensive comparison of the top Polymarket analytics tools in 2026. 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