Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Should You Use in 2025?
Polymarket did $9 billion in volume in 2024. Kalshi is now legally available to US bettors after winning their CFTC court battle.
Both platforms let you bet on real-world events. Both have markets on elections, crypto, sports, and more.
So which one should you use?
I trade on both. Here's the honest comparison.
The 60-Second Summary
| Feature | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | Unregulated (Crypto) | CFTC-regulated (US) |
| Currency | USDC (Crypto) | USD (Bank/Card) |
| US Access | Officially blocked | Fully legal |
| Volume | $9B+ (2024) | ~$500M (2024) |
| Fees | 0% trading | 1-7% per contract |
| Min Trade | ~$1 | $1 |
| Markets | 500+ active | 200+ active |
| Best For | Crypto users, non-US | US residents, beginners |
Polymarket: The Deep Dive
What Is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market built on Polygon (Ethereum L2). You trade using USDC stablecoin. Every trade settles on-chain, meaning full transparency.
In 2024, it became the largest prediction market in history with over $9 billion in volume โ mostly driven by the US presidential election.
Polymarket Pros
1. Zero Trading FeesPolymarket charges no fees on trades. You pay only Polygon gas (~$0.01) and the spread.
Compare that to Kalshi's 1-7% fees, and the savings add up fast for active traders.
2. Highest LiquidityMore volume = better prices. On major markets (elections, crypto), Polymarket has 10-50x more liquidity than Kalshi.
This means tighter spreads and less slippage on large orders.
3. Full TransparencyEvery trade is on-chain. You can:
- Verify any trader's real P&L on Dune Analytics
- Track whale wallets in real-time
- Audit the entire order book
No other prediction market offers this level of transparency.
4. More MarketsPolymarket has 500+ active markets vs Kalshi's 200+. More niche events, more opportunities.
Polymarket Cons
1. Technically Blocks US UsersPolymarket uses geoblocking for US IP addresses. Many US users access it via VPN, but this is against their terms of service.
Not legal advice โ do your own research on your jurisdiction. 2. Requires CryptoYou need:
- A crypto wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, etc.)
- USDC on Polygon network
- Understanding of bridging, gas, etc.
If you've never used crypto, there's a learning curve.
3. No Customer SupportDecentralized means no phone number to call. Discord is your best bet for help.
4. Regulatory RiskPolymarket operates offshore. Future regulations could impact access or withdrawals.
Kalshi: The Deep Dive
What Is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market based in New York. It's the first (and only) federally legal platform for event contracts in the US.
After winning a court battle in 2024, Kalshi can now offer political markets to US residents.
Kalshi Pros
1. 100% Legal in the USThis is Kalshi's killer feature. No VPNs, no gray areas, no regulatory risk.
Your funds are protected by US financial regulations.
2. USD DepositsLink your bank account or debit card. No crypto required.
For beginners, this removes the biggest barrier to entry.
3. Clean InterfaceKalshi's app is polished and beginner-friendly. If you've never traded prediction markets, you'll figure it out in minutes.
4. Tax ReportingKalshi provides 1099 forms. Your gains and losses are properly documented for US taxes.
On Polymarket, you're responsible for tracking everything yourself.
Kalshi Cons
1. Trading Fees (1-7%)Kalshi takes a cut of every trade. On low-probability events, fees can eat a significant portion of your profit.
2. Lower LiquidityLess volume means:
- Wider spreads
- More slippage on large orders
- Some markets barely trade
~200 active markets vs Polymarket's 500+. Fewer niche events available.
4. Withdrawal LimitsKalshi has withdrawal restrictions and processing times. Not as instant as crypto.
Head-to-Head: Key Comparisons
Fees Example
You bet $100 on an outcome at 50ยข that wins:
Polymarket:- Cost: $100 (no fees)
- Payout: $200
- Profit: $100
- Cost: $100 + ~$3-5 fees
- Payout: $200 - fees on exit
- Profit: ~$92-95
On a single trade, small difference. Over 100 trades, Kalshi fees cost you $500-800.
Liquidity Example
2024 US Election, "Trump Wins" market:
Polymarket: $3.5B+ total volume, $50M+ daily Kalshi: ~$100M total volumeFor elections, Polymarket dominates. For some niche events, Kalshi might have exclusive markets.
Market Coverage
Only on Polymarket:- Many crypto-specific markets
- International events
- More obscure categories
- Some US-specific regulatory events
- Certain economic indicators
- Elections
- Major sports
- Crypto prices
- Fed decisions
Which Platform Should You Use?
Use Polymarket If:
โ You're outside the US (or willing to use VPN) โ You're comfortable with crypto wallets โ You trade actively and want zero fees โ You want maximum liquidity and market selection โ You value on-chain transparencyUse Kalshi If:
โ You're in the US and want 100% legal โ You prefer USD and bank deposits โ You're new to prediction markets โ You need proper tax documentation โ You want customer support accessUse Both If:
The smart move for serious traders: use both.
- Arbitrage between platforms when prices diverge
- Access exclusive markets on each
- Hedge positions across both
The Arbitrage Opportunity
When the same event trades on both platforms, prices sometimes diverge. Example:
"Trump Wins" market (October 2024):- Polymarket: 58ยข
- Kalshi: 54ยข
Buy on Kalshi, sell on Polymarket = risk-free 4% (minus fees and friction).
These opportunities are rare and fast, but they exist. Some traders run bots scanning both platforms 24/7.
Tools for Both Platforms
Whether you trade Polymarket, Kalshi, or both, you need good tools:
For Polymarket:
- PolyTrack โ Whale tracking and alerts
- Dune Dashboards โ On-chain analytics
- Polymarket Whales โ Twitter alerts for big trades
For Kalshi:
- Kalshi API โ Build custom trading tools
- Kalshi Discord โ Community and market discussion
For Both:
- Spreadsheet tracking โ Monitor positions across platforms
- Arbitrage scanners โ Catch price divergences
๐ Browse all Polymarket tools โ
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket = More volume, zero fees, requires crypto โ Best for serious traders comfortable with crypto.
- Kalshi = Legal in US, USD deposits, has fees โ Best for US residents and beginners.
- Polymarket has 10-50x more liquidity on major markets like elections.
- Kalshi fees (1-7%) add up fast for active traders.
- Using both opens arbitrage opportunities and market access.
Ready to Start?
If you're new to prediction markets, try Kalshi for the easy onboarding.
If you want maximum edge, learn crypto and use Polymarket.
Either way, check out our tools directory to trade smarter:
๐ See the best Polymarket tools โ
Questions? Join our community and ask other traders which platform they prefer.




